Cornel West, a progressive activist and former Harvard professor, launched his campaign for the 2024 presidential election on Monday, June 5, under the People’s Party — a third party founded in 2017. However, the West faces extremely steep odds since no president has ever been elected by a third party.
In an era of constant “unprecedented” times, is a third-party president a possibility in the 2024 election?
As Gen Z voters reach voting age, many may feel compelled to align themselves with either liberal or conservative ideologies — the Democratic or Republican parties. While people’s political views usually fall on a spectrum from far-left liberal to far-right conservative, there are only two viable options for which party to support in federal elections.
Some younger voters have decided to forgo political parties altogether and become independent, supporting neither party. In this context, the relevance of third-party candidates emerges, offering an alternative choice for voters beyond the constraints of the two-party system.
What are third-party candidates?
In American politics, there are two parties that hold a lot of the power: the Republicans and the Democrats.
However, other political parties exist in the U.S., such as the Libertarian Party or the Green Party, but their influence is dwarfed by the two major parties.
During a presidential election, these third-party candidates face hurdles that those running under the Democratic or Republican Parties don’t, including gaining entry into the debates organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD). To enter the CPD-run presidential debates, candidates must be polling at 15% of the vote. Though several third-party candidates have come close, none have surpassed that threshold since the rule was enacted in 2000, and no exceptions have been made.
Due to their absence in the debates and lesser media coverage, voters are usually less familiar with third-party candidates. Even when third-party candidates receive some public support, people are hesitant to vote for them out of fear of inadvertently electing their least-favorite candidate.
Are third-party candidates spoilsports?
Those who oppose third-party candidates frequently accuse them of being electoral spoilers. In recent years, notably during the 2016 presidential election, some claimed third-party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson took votes away from Hillary Clinton, allowing Donald Trump to win. However, in the 2020 election, Joe Biden was able to win in part because many independent voters picked him over third-party candidates.
Before that, many blamed billionaire Green Party candidate Ralph Nader for costing Al Gore the 2000 presidential election. Though he received less than 3% of the popular vote, the 97,000 votes Nader received in Florida outnumbered the 537 votes that Gore lost the state by. Without Nader on the ballot, it’s possible that Gore would have also prevailed over Bush in the 2000 election.
But can they win?
While it’s not impossible, a third-party candidate is unlikely to receive a significant percentage of the popular vote and even less likely to collect the electoral votes needed to win the election.
The closest any third-party candidate has gotten to overcoming the odds was former president Theodore Roosevelt. Unhappy with his successor’s efforts, Roosevelt left the Republican Party and created the Progressive Party to challenge Republican incumbent President William Taft in the presidential election of 1912. Roosevelt’s performance marks the most successful third-party candidacy in U.S. history, winning 27% of the vote and 88 electoral votes. He beat Taft but split the Republican vote to such a degree that Democrat Woodrow Wilson was able to swoop in and win the election.
How did we get here?
The framework of American presidential elections is built on a winner-takes-all method of voting, which dictates that one must win more votes than any other candidate to win a state’s electoral votes. As a result, individuals feel compelled to vote for the candidate they believe has the best chance of defeating their least-favorite candidate rather than the candidate they want.
Other politicians decided to forgo the party system altogether and run as independent candidates. These tend to be politicians who were already in office and have departed either the Democratic or Republican Parties. For example, Senator Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party while in office in 2022. Some exceptions in recent history have been Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who entered politics as independents and were elected to the Senate.
What do the people want?
As the political climate becomes more polarized, the parties have moved further and further to each side; however, many Americans no longer align themselves with either party. According to a recent Gallup poll, 49% of Americans consider themselves independent, whereas just 25% identify as Democrats and 25% as Republicans.
Among voters, younger people are especially likely to be dissatisfied with the current party system. Per a recent Pew Research poll, 47% of Americans aged 18 to 49 say they often wish there were more parties to choose from, while only 35% of Americans aged 50 to 64 and 23% of Americans aged 65 and older say the same.
Many Americans are drawn to depart from the status quo and have other political parties besides the Democratic and Republican Parties. Still, the younger generations, in particular, are ready for a change.
Ranked-ballot voting could change the game
Ranked-choice voting is one proposed solution to limit the domination of the two-party system without splitting the vote and spoiling the election.
In a ranked-choice system, voters choose from a list of candidates and rank them by preference. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and their second-choice votes are redistributed to the remaining candidates. This process continues until one candidate has a majority of the votes.
If a voter chooses an unpopular candidate for their first choice, their vote would still ultimately be counted for their second choice, and they wouldn’t be wasting a vote or supporting the other party’s candidate. This could grant third-party candidates a real shot at winning and potentially better represent the majority of Americans.
What’s next?
It’s uncertain what role third-party candidates will play in the upcoming election, but it’s important voters know that options exist beyond the Democratic and Republican tickets. Recently, there’s been speculation that centrist Democrat Joe Manchin might make a possible presidential candidate bid as a third-party candidate or an independent. Besides Manchin, other possible names to enter the race as an independent or with a third party include Liz Cheney, Andrew Yang, and of course, ‘Ye’.
The 2024 election is on the horizon and what role third-party candidates will play remains to be seen.
